New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 50.5%

NJD: 49.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.14

NJD: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	33	30	3	90.9%	4.22	6	1.22
NJD	Jake Allen	26	24	2	92.3%	3.07	1	1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • WSH at home vs NJD: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.46
1	NJD	17	4	2.29
2	WSH	17	0	0.49
2	NJD	14	1	0.85
3	WSH	19	1	2.12
3	NJD	12	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0