St. Louis Blues at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

NYI: 58.2%

STL: 41.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.32

STL: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	25	24	1	96.0%	1.90	2	0.90
STL	Jordan Binnington	31	28	3	90.3%	3.60	3	0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	STL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-11-22	NYI 1 - 2 STL	STL	NYI
2024-11-23	NYI 3 - 1 STL	NYI	NYI
2024-10-17	STL 1 - 0 NYI	STL	NYI
2024-03-05	NYI 4 - 2 STL	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	17	0	0.60
1	STL	8	0	0.49
2	NYI	19	2	1.89
2	STL	10	1	0.63
3	NYI	8	1	1.11
3	STL	15	1	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0