Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

SJS: 48.7%

BUF: 51.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.94

BUF: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	31	27	4	87.1%	2.41	1	-1.59
BUF	James Reimer	33	31	2	93.9%	3.79	1	1.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs BUF: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	SJS 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	SJS
2026-03-10	BUF 6 - 3 SJS	BUF	BUF
2025-03-04	BUF 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	BUF
2024-11-23	SJS 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-27	SJS 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	19	1	1.32
1	BUF	14	0	0.52
2	SJS	21	0	1.50
2	BUF	16	0	0.65
3	SJS	10	0	0.98
3	BUF	13	1	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2