Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 43.6%

COL: 56.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.45

COL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs COL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	2	1.51
1	COL	9	2	1.39
2	TBL	15	2	1.59
2	COL	9	0	0.47
3	TBL	13	2	1.21
3	COL	17	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2