Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 44.2%

COL: 55.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.47

COL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

COL

Justus Annunen - 8-4-1 | 0.928 SV% | 2.25 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	23	2	92.0%	2.67	2	0.67
COL	Justus Annunen	33	25	8	75.8%	4.31	6	-3.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TBL at home vs COL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	2	1.51
1	COL	9	2	1.39
2	TBL	15	2	1.59
2	COL	9	0	0.47
3	TBL	13	2	1.21
3	COL	17	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.5 - 3.3