Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2024-11-25 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 57.9%
VGK: 42.1%
Expected Goals
PHI: 2.87
VGK: 2.94
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | PHI | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.864 | 0.895 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs VGK: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | VGK 1 - 2 PHI | PHI | VGK |
| 2025-12-11 | PHI 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | PHI |
| 2025-01-02 | VGK 5 - 2 PHI | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-11-25 | PHI 4 - 5 VGK | VGK | PHI |
| 2023-11-18 | PHI 4 - 3 VGK | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:51 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 12:07 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 00:28 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:42 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 11:32 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 13:18 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 18:10 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 11:55 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.9 - 2.9