Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

PHI: 41.3%

VGK: 58.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.01

VGK: 3.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	1	0.81
1	VGK	8	0	0.47
2	PHI	12	3	1.62
2	VGK	20	1	1.08
3	PHI	22	0	1.24
3	VGK	9	0	0.63
4	PHI	9	0	1.23
4	VGK	0	0	0.00
5	PHI	3	0	0.24
5	VGK	2	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.7