Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

OTT: 71.5%

CGY: 28.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.39

CGY: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 38%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	27	24	3	88.9%	1.90	0	-1.10
CGY	Dustin Wolf	30	26	4	86.7%	3.26	0	-0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • OTT at home vs CGY: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	CGY 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-30	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-12-19	CGY 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-25	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-01-09	CGY 6 - 3 OTT	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	OTT	12	1.09
1	CGY	11	0.69
2	OTT	14	0.86
2	CGY	13	0.78
3	OTT	13	1.31
3	CGY	10	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6