Utah Hockey Club at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-11-26 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

MTL: 45.6%

UTA: 54.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.04

UTA: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	29	26	3	89.7%	3.94	2	0.94
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	13	11	2	84.6%	2.91	3	0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • MTL at home vs UTA: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	UTA 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	UTA
2025-11-08	MTL 6 - 2 UTA	MTL	UTA
2025-01-14	UTA 3 - 5 MTL	MTL	UTA
2024-11-26	MTL 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	0	0.67
1	UTA	21	0	1.80
2	MTL	10	2	1.22
2	UTA	13	1	0.92
3	MTL	8	1	0.91
3	UTA	12	0	0.83
4	MTL	2	0	0.11
4	UTA	1	1	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2