Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 1 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 51.1%

MIN: 48.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.13

MIN: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	30	29	1	96.7%	2.17	1	1.17
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	39	39	0	100.0%	3.28	0	3.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • BUF at home vs MIN: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	BUF 3 - 2 MIN	BUF	BUF
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	MIN
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	22	0	1.21
1	MIN	9	0	0.45
2	BUF	12	0	0.57
2	MIN	12	0	0.30
3	BUF	20	0	1.50
3	MIN	18	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1