Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DET: 54.3%

CGY: 45.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.07

CGY: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 38%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	25	24	1	96.0%	2.09	1	1.09
CGY	Dan Vladar	27	25	2	92.6%	2.63	2	0.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs CGY: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.51
1	CGY	10	1	0.63
2	DET	15	1	1.22
2	CGY	10	0	0.47
3	DET	13	0	0.57
3	CGY	18	0	0.92
4	DET	2	1	0.33
4	CGY	2	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 2.5