Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 52.9%

WSH: 47.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.15

WSH: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	WSH
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	0.93
1	WSH	13	0	0.42
2	TBL	10	1	0.51
2	WSH	13	0	0.63
3	TBL	13	1	1.58
3	WSH	18	0	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1