Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 56.0%

WSH: 44.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.36

WSH: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	27	5	84.4%	1.94	0	-3.06
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	29	25	4	86.2%	3.03	2	-0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	0.93
1	WSH	13	0	0.42
2	TBL	10	1	0.51
2	WSH	13	0	0.63
3	TBL	13	1	1.58
3	WSH	18	0	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0