Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

FLA: 53.4%

TOR: 46.6%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.88

TOR: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 37%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	24	23	1	95.8%	2.03	0	1.03
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	24	19	5	79.2%	2.90	1	-2.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	15	0	0.85
1	TOR	12	0	0.59
2	FLA	13	0	0.99
2	TOR	13	0	1.03
3	FLA	9	1	1.06
3	TOR	7	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9