Vancouver Canucks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

PIT: 62.5%

VAN: 37.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.59

VAN: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

VAN

Arturs Silovs - 3-0-1 | 0.881 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	25	4	86.2%	1.82	0	-2.18
VAN	Arturs Silovs	23	18	5	78.3%	2.62	2	-2.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs VAN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	VAN 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-21	PIT 5 - 1 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-11-27	PIT 5 - 4 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 PIT	VAN	VAN
2024-02-27	VAN 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	2	1.60
1	VAN	12	0	0.47
2	PIT	12	0	0.40
2	VAN	6	0	0.34
3	PIT	9	0	0.61
3	VAN	16	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.6 - 3.4