Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 70.2%

MTL: 29.8%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.83

MTL: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	23	19	4	82.6%	2.81	2	-1.19
MTL	Cayden Primeau	24	21	3	87.5%	2.69	3	-0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CBJ at home vs MTL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	MTL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	MTL
2026-03-26	MTL 2 - 1 CBJ	MTL	MTL
2025-11-17	CBJ 4 - 3 MTL	CBJ	CBJ
2024-12-23	CBJ 5 - 4 MTL	CBJ	CBJ
2024-11-27	CBJ 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	13	1	0.76
1	MTL	15	1	1.32
2	CBJ	10	2	1.10
2	MTL	15	0	0.72
3	CBJ	15	0	0.83
3	MTL	8	0	0.32
4	CBJ	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	3	1	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8