Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 6 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 37.8%

DAL: 62.2%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.72

DAL: 3.56

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	27	25	2	92.6%	3.42	4	1.42
DAL	Casey DeSmith	26	20	6	76.9%	3.00	3	-3.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CHI at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	13	2	1.27
1	DAL	14	2	1.46
2	CHI	13	1	1.20
2	DAL	16	1	1.30
3	CHI	7	0	0.53
3	DAL	15	1	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 6 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.7 - 3.6