Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

SJS: 30.7%

OTT: 69.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.87

OTT: 3.58

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	11	7	4	63.6%	1.82	2	-2.18
OTT	Linus Ullmark	39	36	3	92.3%	4.51	4	1.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • SJS at home vs OTT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	OTT 7 - 4 SJS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-22	SJS 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-01	OTT 5 - 3 SJS	OTT	OTT
2024-11-27	SJS 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-09	SJS 2 - 1 OTT	SJS	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	17	0	0.95
1	OTT	9	1	0.65
2	SJS	18	1	1.10
2	OTT	10	0	0.47
3	SJS	22	3	2.46
3	OTT	4	1	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.9 - 3.6