Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-11-29 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 56.8%

VAN: 43.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.31

VAN: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 37%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	22	18	4	81.8%	2.37	4	-1.63
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	34	31	3	91.2%	2.72	0	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs VAN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	BUF 5 - 3 VAN	BUF	BUF
2025-12-11	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-21	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	VAN
2024-11-29	BUF 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	BUF
2024-03-19	VAN 3 - 2 BUF	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.83
1	VAN	10	0	0.19
2	BUF	14	0	0.74
2	VAN	14	1	0.98
3	BUF	23	0	0.98
3	VAN	7	2	0.76
4	BUF	2	0	0.16
4	VAN	2	1	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8