Calgary Flames at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2024-11-29 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 5 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

CBJ: 55.5%

CGY: 44.5%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.26

CGY: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 42%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	29	27	2	93.1%	2.46	2	0.46
CGY	Dustin Wolf	34	29	5	85.3%	3.53	3	-1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CBJ at home vs CGY: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	CBJ 5 - 3 CGY	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-05	CGY 5 - 1 CBJ	CGY	CGY
2024-12-03	CGY 3 - 0 CBJ	CGY	CGY
2024-11-29	CBJ 5 - 2 CGY	CBJ	CBJ
2024-01-25	CGY 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	20	1	1.48
1	CGY	11	1	0.71
2	CBJ	12	1	0.46
2	CGY	13	1	0.86
3	CBJ	11	1	1.59
3	CGY	15	0	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 5 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1