Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-11-29 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 47.0%

COL: 53.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.33

COL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	32	29	3	90.6%	4.53	5	1.53
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	24	19	5	79.2%	3.08	5	-1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • DAL at home vs COL: 7-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	DAL 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	2	0.92
1	COL	18	1	1.53
2	DAL	16	2	1.38
2	COL	10	0	0.51
3	DAL	6	1	0.78
3	COL	18	4	2.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1