Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-30 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

TBL: 44.7%

TOR: 55.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.39

TOR: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 41%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	24	5	82.8%	2.75	4	-2.25
TOR	Joseph Woll	41	38	3	92.7%	3.83	3	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	0.96
1	TOR	9	1	0.93
2	TBL	16	1	1.21
2	TOR	15	0	0.54
3	TBL	28	1	1.66
3	TOR	8	3	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3