Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-11-30 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 57.0%
TOR: 43.0%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.01
TOR: 3.22
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | TBL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.941 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | TBL 4 - 2 TOR | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-08 | TOR 2 - 0 TBL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-09 | TBL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | TBL |
| 2025-01-20 | TOR 5 - 3 TBL | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-11-30 | TBL 3 - 5 TOR | TOR | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:13 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 08:06 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 08:39 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 18:59 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 11:21 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 15:19 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 17:38 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:44 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2