Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-11-30 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 5 - 6 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 55.4%

WSH: 44.6%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.35

WSH: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	32	26	6	81.2%	3.60	2	-2.40
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	27	22	5	81.5%	3.16	3	-1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NJD at home vs WSH: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	11	0	0.51
1	WSH	21	1	1.92
2	NJD	14	1	0.99
2	WSH	20	1	1.12
3	NJD	15	2	1.67
3	WSH	9	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 5 - 6 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2