Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-30 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 49.5%

CGY: 50.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.22

CGY: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	32	30	2	93.8%	2.82	2	0.82
CGY	Dan Vladar	43	37	6	86.0%	3.57	1	-2.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	CGY
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	0	0.66
1	CGY	16	2	1.36
2	PIT	27	0	1.56
2	CGY	16	0	0.69
3	PIT	16	1	1.35
3	CGY	15	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0