Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-11-30 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

NYI: 55.0%

BUF: 45.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.37

BUF: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	29	0	100.0%	1.60	0	1.60
BUF	James Reimer	20	17	3	85.0%	2.54	2	-0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs BUF: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	NYI
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.60
1	BUF	14	0	0.70
2	NYI	11	0	0.75
2	BUF	15	0	0.32
3	NYI	8	2	1.19
3	BUF	19	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9