Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-11-30 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 55.1%

EDM: 44.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.89

EDM: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	32	28	4	87.5%	4.33	5	0.33
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	27	1	96.4%	2.59	2	1.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • COL at home vs EDM: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	18	2	1.52
1	EDM	13	0	0.70
2	COL	9	0	0.59
2	EDM	15	3	1.66
3	COL	12	0	0.48
3	EDM	16	2	1.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0