Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-12-01 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

BOS: 68.2%

MTL: 31.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.32

MTL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	25	3	89.3%	1.93	0	-1.07
MTL	Cayden Primeau	30	24	6	80.0%	4.18	3	-1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • BOS at home vs MTL: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	15	0	0.80
1	MTL	11	0	0.48
2	BOS	15	2	1.53
2	MTL	16	0	0.83
3	BOS	15	1	1.86
3	MTL	11	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 6 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8