Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

TOR: 72.2%

CHI: 27.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.35

CHI: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	28	27	1	96.4%	3.09	2	2.09
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	22	18	4	81.8%	3.76	2	-0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	1.24
1	CHI	11	1	0.93
2	TOR	7	0	0.53
2	CHI	18	0	1.22
3	TOR	9	2	1.99
3	CHI	11	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.5