Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-12-03 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 50.1%

COL: 49.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.27

COL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	COL 6 - 3 BUF	COL	COL
2025-10-13	BUF 1 - 3 COL	COL	BUF
2025-01-02	COL 6 - 5 BUF	COL	COL
2024-12-03	BUF 4 - 5 COL	COL	BUF
2023-12-13	COL 5 - 1 BUF	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	2	1.70
1	COL	12	0	0.35
2	BUF	16	0	0.82
2	COL	29	1	1.73
3	BUF	12	1	1.30
3	COL	22	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2