Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-12-03 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 55.6%
COL: 44.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.10
COL: 3.25
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | BUF | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | 0.964 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs COL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | COL 6 - 3 BUF | COL | COL |
| 2025-10-13 | BUF 1 - 3 COL | COL | BUF |
| 2025-01-02 | COL 6 - 5 BUF | COL | COL |
| 2024-12-03 | BUF 4 - 5 COL | COL | BUF |
| 2023-12-13 | COL 5 - 1 BUF | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:49 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 06:50 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 06:39 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 03:22 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 02:24 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 15:38 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:39 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 04:30 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 01:19 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.1 - 3.2