New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-12-03 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 47.6%

NYI: 52.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.83

NYI: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	31	30	1	96.8%	3.71	3	2.71
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	27	25	2	92.6%	2.74	1	0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	NYI
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	0.98
1	NYI	7	0	0.35
2	MTL	13	0	0.57
2	NYI	20	2	2.42
3	MTL	12	1	0.94
3	NYI	8	1	0.79
4	MTL	3	0	0.25
4	NYI	3	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1