Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-12-03 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

PIT: 53.6%

FLA: 46.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.38

FLA: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	41	37	4	90.2%	2.90	1	-1.10
FLA	Spencer Knight	16	11	5	68.8%	1.79	0	-3.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs FLA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	11	0	0.60
1	FLA	22	0	1.01
2	PIT	10	0	0.58
2	FLA	17	0	0.69
3	PIT	10	0	0.55
3	FLA	20	1	1.19
4	PIT	1	0	0.07
4	FLA	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2