San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-12-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 68.9%

SJS: 31.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.90

SJS: 2.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 42%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	31	29	2	93.5%	3.10	2	1.10
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	28	27	1	96.4%	2.55	1	1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	WSH 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	WSH
2025-12-03	SJS 1 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-15	SJS 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-03	WSH 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	WSH
2023-11-27	SJS 2 - 1 WSH	SJS	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	28	1	1.66
1	SJS	10	0	0.64
2	WSH	11	0	0.74
2	SJS	18	1	1.03
3	WSH	8	0	0.15
3	SJS	18	1	1.26
4	WSH	0	0	0.00
4	SJS	2	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 2.9 - 2.2