St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-12-03 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 52.4%

STL: 47.6%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.08

STL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	32	28	4	87.5%	4.03	5	0.03
STL	Joel Hofer	23	22	1	95.7%	1.70	0	0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs STL: 9-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	STL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	STL
2026-03-15	WPG 3 - 2 STL	WPG	STL
2026-01-20	WPG 3 - 1 STL	WPG	WPG
2025-12-17	STL 1 - 0 WPG	STL	WPG
2025-05-04	WPG 4 - 3 STL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	13	0	0.52
1	STL	7	0	0.46
2	WPG	8	0	0.27
2	STL	23	3	2.06
3	WPG	17	0	0.91
3	STL	9	2	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8