Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-12-03 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 0 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

VGK: 53.6%

EDM: 46.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.08

EDM: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	28	28	0	100.0%	2.50	1	2.50
EDM	Stuart Skinner	16	15	1	93.8%	1.27	0	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs EDM: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	EDM
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	0	0.46
1	EDM	8	0	0.15
2	VGK	15	0	0.51
2	EDM	18	0	1.03
3	VGK	4	0	0.30
3	EDM	18	1	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 0 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1