Boston Bruins at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2024-12-04 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 58.5%

BOS: 41.5%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.31

BOS: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	27	23	4	85.2%	3.26	3	-0.74
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	22	20	2	90.9%	1.50	0	-0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CHI at home vs BOS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	CHI 2 - 5 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-10-09	BOS 4 - 3 CHI	BOS	BOS
2025-04-10	BOS 2 - 5 CHI	CHI	BOS
2024-12-04	CHI 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	CHI
2023-10-24	CHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	7	0	0.45
1	BOS	8	1	0.86
2	CHI	11	0	0.39
2	BOS	12	1	1.15
3	CHI	12	0	0.67
3	BOS	13	1	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8