Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-12-05 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

BUF: 42.9%

WPG: 57.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.49

WPG: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 35%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	31	28	3	90.3%	3.24	1	0.24
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	30	28	2	93.3%	2.32	0	0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BUF at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	WPG
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.50
1	WPG	21	1	1.42
2	BUF	18	0	1.04
2	WPG	18	0	1.31
3	BUF	12	0	0.62
3	WPG	4	0	0.21
4	BUF	2	0	0.15
4	WPG	2	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.5 - 3.1