Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-12-05 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

OTT: 74.1%

DET: 25.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.94

DET: 1.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	20	19	1	95.0%	2.67	2	1.67
DET	Ville Husso	32	30	2	93.8%	1.84	0	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs DET: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	OTT
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	0	1.15
1	DET	10	0	0.53
2	OTT	16	0	0.35
2	DET	12	1	0.77
3	OTT	9	0	0.34
3	DET	15	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.9 - 2.0