San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-05 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

TBL: 75.9%

SJS: 24.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.67

SJS: 2.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 38%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs SJS: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	1	1.18
1	SJS	11	0	0.81
2	TBL	17	0	1.04
2	SJS	11	1	0.88
3	TBL	11	0	0.65
3	SJS	7	1	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 75.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.7 - 2.2