Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2024-12-05 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

CAR: 57.7%

COL: 42.3%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.67

COL: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	19	16	3	84.2%	2.41	2	-0.59
COL	Scott Wedgewood	35	30	5	85.7%	4.53	5	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CAR at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	CAR 3 - 5 COL	COL	CAR
2025-10-23	COL 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-12-05	CAR 5 - 3 COL	CAR	CAR
2024-11-09	COL 6 - 4 CAR	COL	COL
2024-02-08	CAR 5 - 2 COL	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	21	2	1.61
1	COL	7	0	0.69
2	CAR	19	0	1.02
2	COL	10	1	0.59
3	CAR	15	3	1.90
3	COL	10	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0