St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-12-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 58.3%

STL: 41.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.49

STL: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	24	20	4	83.3%	2.94	4	-1.06
STL	Jordan Binnington	39	36	3	92.3%	3.21	2	0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CGY at home vs STL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	CGY 2 - 1 STL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-11	STL 3 - 2 CGY	STL	STL
2025-10-11	CGY 2 - 4 STL	STL	CGY
2025-01-16	STL 4 - 1 CGY	STL	STL
2025-01-14	STL 2 - 1 CGY	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	2	1.50
1	STL	9	0	0.71
2	CGY	12	0	0.62
2	STL	15	2	1.15
3	CGY	15	0	0.83
3	STL	9	1	0.48
4	CGY	3	0	0.26
4	STL	3	1	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7