Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-06 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TOR: 41.9%

WSH: 58.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.73

WSH: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TOR at home vs WSH: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	10	0	0.68
1	WSH	14	0	0.85
2	TOR	15	0	0.81
2	WSH	14	0	0.50
3	TOR	10	0	0.45
3	WSH	17	2	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.7 - 3.1