Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-06 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TOR: 43.0%

WSH: 57.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.73

WSH: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	26	23	3	88.5%	3.09	2	0.09
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	21	20	1	95.2%	1.95	0	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TOR at home vs WSH: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	10	0	0.68
1	WSH	14	0	0.85
2	TOR	15	0	0.81
2	WSH	14	0	0.50
3	TOR	10	0	0.45
3	WSH	17	2	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.7 - 2.9