Utah Hockey Club at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-12-07 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

BUF: 39.0%

UTA: 61.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.16

UTA: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	23	5	82.1%	2.95	3	-2.05
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	25	23	2	92.0%	2.50	1	0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • BUF at home vs UTA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-12	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2025-11-04	BUF 1 - 2 UTA	UTA	BUF
2025-03-20	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2024-12-07	BUF 2 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	0	0.75
1	UTA	16	1	1.10
2	BUF	6	0	0.26
2	UTA	16	0	1.26
3	BUF	20	1	1.49
3	UTA	8	2	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4