Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2024-12-07 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 54.7%

WPG: 45.3%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.97

WPG: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 41%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	29	25	4	86.2%	4.39	4	0.39
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	14	12	2	85.7%	0.89	0	-1.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CHI at home vs WPG: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	CHI 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2026-03-03	WPG 3 - 2 CHI	WPG	WPG
2026-01-19	CHI 2 - 0 WPG	CHI	WPG
2025-10-30	WPG 6 - 3 CHI	WPG	WPG
2025-04-12	CHI 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	11	0	0.42
1	WPG	11	0	0.74
2	CHI	6	0	0.18
2	WPG	20	1	1.25
3	CHI	7	0	0.29
3	WPG	18	3	2.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2