Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-12-07 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

PIT: 58.0%

TOR: 42.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.25

TOR: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	25	2	92.6%	2.76	1	0.76
TOR	Joseph Woll	29	24	5	82.8%	3.73	2	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	PIT
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	9	0	0.39
1	TOR	17	1	1.23
2	PIT	14	0	0.73
2	TOR	14	0	0.80
3	PIT	19	2	2.62
3	TOR	15	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1