Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-12-07 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 46.8%
TOR: 53.2%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.27
TOR: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 55%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | PIT | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.862 | 0.906 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | TOR 6 - 3 PIT | TOR | PIT |
| 2025-11-29 | PIT 2 - 7 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2025-11-03 | TOR 4 - 3 PIT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-02 | PIT 5 - 6 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2024-12-07 | PIT 5 - 2 TOR | PIT | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:39 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 06:35 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 14:15 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 02:32 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 05:34 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:20 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:34 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 3.2
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