New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2024-12-08 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 57.9%
NYI: 42.1%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.22
NYI: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | OTT | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.930 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.783 | 0.875 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 14% • OTT at home vs NYI: 0-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | OTT 4 - 5 NYI | NYI | OTT |
| 2025-01-14 | NYI 0 - 2 OTT | OTT | NYI |
| 2024-12-08 | OTT 2 - 4 NYI | NYI | OTT |
| 2024-11-07 | OTT 2 - 4 NYI | NYI | OTT |
| 2024-03-16 | NYI 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:37 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 12:27 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 14:48 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 00:37 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 13:46 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 19:09 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9