New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-12-08 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 57.5%

NYI: 42.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.09

NYI: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	13	9	4	69.2%	3.04	4	-0.96
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	29	2	93.5%	2.97	1	0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs NYI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	NYI
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	1	1.03
1	NYI	9	1	0.73
2	OTT	13	0	0.91
2	NYI	7	0	0.42
3	OTT	16	0	1.03
3	NYI	10	3	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8