Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-08 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DAL: 61.4%

CGY: 38.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.57

CGY: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	1	1.34
1	CGY	8	0	0.22
2	DAL	9	1	0.83
2	CGY	21	1	1.14
3	DAL	15	0	0.82
3	CGY	17	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9