Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-08 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DAL: 57.6%

CGY: 42.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.32

CGY: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	29	2	93.5%	2.06	1	0.06
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	22	6	78.6%	2.99	2	-3.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	1	1.34
1	CGY	8	0	0.22
2	DAL	9	1	0.83
2	CGY	21	1	1.14
3	DAL	15	0	0.82
3	CGY	17	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8