Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-12-10 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 60.6%

TOR: 39.4%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.68

TOR: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	21	0	1.15
1	TOR	2	0	0.15
2	NJD	12	1	1.19
2	TOR	15	1	1.12
3	NJD	17	2	1.37
3	TOR	16	1	1.21
4	NJD	3	0	0.36
4	TOR	2	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9