Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-12-10 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 55.2%

TOR: 44.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.47

TOR: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	17	15	2	88.2%	2.81	2	0.81
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	39	38	1	97.4%	4.06	3	3.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	21	0	1.15
1	TOR	2	0	0.15
2	NJD	12	1	1.19
2	TOR	15	1	1.12
3	NJD	17	2	1.37
3	TOR	16	1	1.21
4	NJD	3	0	0.36
4	TOR	2	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0