Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-12-10 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

EDM: 59.4%

TBL: 40.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.39

TBL: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	22	21	1	95.5%	2.25	1	1.25
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	24	2	92.3%	3.51	4	1.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	2	0.84
1	TBL	10	0	0.57
2	EDM	16	2	2.10
2	TBL	13	0	0.92
3	EDM	8	0	0.58
3	TBL	11	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0