Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

TOR: 66.2%

ANA: 33.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.78

ANA: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	28	26	2	92.9%	1.91	0	-0.09
ANA	Lukas Dostal	33	30	3	90.9%	4.40	2	1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs ANA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	ANA 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	ANA
2026-03-12	TOR 6 - 4 ANA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-30	ANA 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	ANA
2024-12-12	TOR 3 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR
2024-02-17	TOR 9 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	1.11
1	ANA	13	0	0.69
2	TOR	19	1	1.74
2	ANA	18	0	1.05
3	TOR	18	1	1.54
3	ANA	6	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.8 - 2.5