Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 9 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

MTL: 42.9%

PIT: 57.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.88

PIT: 4.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • MTL at home vs PIT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	0	0.52
1	PIT	12	1	0.94
2	MTL	15	1	1.23
2	PIT	14	0	0.69
3	MTL	9	2	0.81
3	PIT	20	2	2.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 9 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 4.5