Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 56.4%

NSH: 43.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.38

NSH: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	22	4	84.6%	4.05	4	0.05
NSH	Justus Annunen	36	35	1	97.2%	2.68	3	1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs NSH: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	NSH 2 - 1 DAL	NSH	NSH
2026-02-28	DAL 3 - 2 NSH	DAL	NSH
2025-11-08	NSH 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-26	NSH 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-04-16	NSH 5 - 1 DAL	NSH	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	1	0.54
1	NSH	12	1	0.94
2	DAL	19	0	0.75
2	NSH	18	1	1.66
3	DAL	20	2	1.39
3	NSH	8	2	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0