Utah Hockey Club at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 56.1%

UTA: 43.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.08

UTA: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	23	19	4	82.6%	3.11	3	-0.89
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	24	23	1	95.8%	2.61	1	1.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • COL at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	UTA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-12-23	COL 1 - 0 UTA	COL	COL
2025-10-21	UTA 4 - 3 COL	UTA	UTA
2025-10-09	COL 2 - 1 UTA	COL	COL
2024-12-27	UTA 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	10	0	0.61
1	UTA	13	1	0.86
2	COL	16	1	1.11
2	UTA	12	0	0.76
3	COL	13	0	0.89
3	UTA	9	2	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9