Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2024-12-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 3 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 57.8%
TBL: 42.2%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.38
TBL: 3.36
Total Goals
Median: 6.8
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 53%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | CGY | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.250 | 0.969 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs TBL: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | TBL 5 - 1 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-27 | TBL 3 - 0 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-12 | CGY 3 - 8 TBL | TBL | CGY |
| 2024-03-07 | TBL 3 - 6 CGY | CGY | TBL |
| 2023-12-16 | CGY 4 - 2 TBL | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:42 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 18:40 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 06:25 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:55 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:05 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:14 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:43 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:34 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:24 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:21 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 3 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.4 - 3.4