Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 53.8%

TBL: 46.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.99

TBL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	CGY
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	0	0.40
1	TBL	14	1	0.85
2	CGY	12	0	0.50
2	TBL	12	2	1.59
3	CGY	10	1	0.53
3	TBL	14	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2